Friday, January 27, 2023

Navy Reads Holocaust Remembrance

By Bill Doughty

Over the years, we’ve offered a number of reviews and commentaries about anti-semitism, Nazism, fascism, and the holocaust. Today, we remember the victims, warning signs, and parallels today on Holocaust Remembrance Day, January 27, 2023.


Among the champions of critical thinking we have featured on Navy Reads who have addressed the horrors of the Holocaust: Hannah Arendt, author of "The Origins of Totalitarianism;” Diane Ackerman, author of “The Zookeeper’s Wife: A War Story;” and Timothy Snyder, author of “On Tyranny;” among others.


Snyder observes similarities between Russia’s aggression and “genocide” in Ukraine with Nazi Germany’s targeting of Jews in the Holocaust. He warns that it could happen here; the rise of Nazism began with a Big Lie, too, that Jews were responsible for Germany losing the First World War. Feelings of victimization can lead to disorder, violence, authoritarianism, and terrorism.


Snyder says U.S. military contributions to the defense of Ukraine, confronting Putin's terrorism and genocide are an investment in peace – both in Europe and as prevention of war in Asia. China, he notes, is watching the resolve of free nations in the West to help support the people of Ukraine.

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Does Taiwan Rhyme with Ukraine?

Review by Bill Doughty––

In “War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait” (Columbia University Press, 2022), Scott L. Kastner examines the likelihood of conflict in Asia. However, readers may find themselves thinking about the actual war in Europe. More about that in a moment…


Kastner’s well-researched book considers the possibility that the People’s Republic of China will take military action –– in the form of a military blockade or outright invasion –– against the democratic citizens of Taiwan (a country which has has been, in reality, an independent nation since 1949).

Kastner presents a brief history of the formation of Republic of China after the civil war of 1949, including Taiwan's flirtation with autocracy and martial law and eventual full embrace of democracy. Then he gets to the heart of his thesis: that there is a balance between sovereignty and reunification, with “status quo” as the fulcrum keeping peace, and with ambiguous options clouding an uncertain future.


The power balance in the region, he notes, has changed in recent years as China’s economy and military have grown –– along with nationalism. “Although the balance of power has clearly shifted in Beijing’s favor, attempting to seize and occupy Taiwan would still represent a highly risky and costly undertaking that might fail spectacularly.”


A key to preventing war, many analysts believe, is deterrence, predicated on the strength of the economy and military of the United States, which is committed to maintaining peace and cooperation on the global commons.


U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said recently, “As long as we remain number one, then we will deter the war that people worry about, a great power war between China and the United States.”

Kastner writes:

“The U.S. Navy has announced numerous transits through the Taiwan Strait over the past few years, including several by guided missile destroyers; these high-profile transits could also indicate some strengthening of U.S.-Taiwan security ties. The frequency of transits has varied considerably over time, however, and long-term trends (at least over the past decade and a half) are ambiguous. Transits occurred on average 5.5. times per year from 2007 to 2010, increased to nearly 10 per year from 2011 to 2016 on average, and dropped to 4 per year from 2017 to 2018, before increasing sharply in 2019 and 2020. On the other hand, the recent uptick in transits is notable, and it is worth highlighting as well that U.S. officials have begun to announce these transits on a regular basis –– whereas in the past they typically went unannounced.”

Kastner also examines the commitment by the U.S. Congress and American presidents to supporting Taiwan's security. (This book was apparently published just before former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s notable visit to Taipei last year.)

Kastner notes, “U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned in April 2021 that it would be ‘a serious mistake for anyone to try to change the existing status quo by force.’”


Still, XI and Communist China threatens invasion by force if the One-China policy is not realized. While Kastner contends “war is not inevitable,” he has an ominous observation:

“Were armed conflict to occur in the Taiwan Strait, at its root would be an intractable sovereignty dispute that has persisted since the end of the Chinese Civil War. In its current manifestation, the dispute centers on Taiwan’s status: whether Taiwan should be considered part of China now, and whether it should be formally unified with mainland China in the future. The PRC views itself as the sole legal government of China, Taiwan as part of China in principle, and formal unification as an important national goal. While Beijing has embraced a policy of ‘peaceful unification,’ it has refused to renounce the use of force and has explicitly threatened to go to war if Taiwan were to formally declare its independence from China, be occupied by foreign forces, or delay –– indefinitely –– negotiations over formal unification. In Taiwan, even though individuals have widely divergent views on cross-Strait policy, and even though the two major parties differ considerably in their approach to China, there nevertheless exists wide agreement that Taiwan (or the ROC) is a sovereign state, and there is very little support for near-term unification with the PRC.”

Kastner concludes ominously, “Absent a dramatic change in circumstances, then, there is little prospect for the two sides peacefully resolving the underlying dispute.”



Does Taiwan rhyme with Hong Kong?

The citizens of Taiwan see what is unfolding in Hong Kong –– as China cracks down on democracy and independence there. They want no part of the loss of freedom they see there and in Tibet, another formerly autonomous region, as a result of China's political system, management, and control.


In Hong Kong, new PRC laws allow interference in the judicial system and schools. Independent newspapers and voices are shut down. Security officers patrol the streets. "The undercutting of autonomy in Hong Kong sends an especially troubling signal to Taiwan given that Beijing also calls its proposed formula for Taiwan "one China, two systems."



Does Taiwan rhyme with Korea?

In North Korea, “Supreme Leader” Kim Jong-un threatens ethnically identical South Koreans. Kastner compares the U.S. promise to support Taiwan with the “iron-clad” commitment to defend the Republic of Korea if attacked by autocratic Communist North Korea, as happened in 1950.


[Recently, the world learned that North Korea, which is still supported by China, is providing weapons to Russia’s Wagner Group in support of Putin’s war of terrorism in Ukraine.]



Does Taiwan rhyme with Ukraine?

In Europe, Putin kills and terrorizes the people of Ukraine despite their same ethnicity.


Just as the PRC sees Taiwan as critical to its expansion throughout Asia, Putin sees Ukraine as a strategic bulwark against the West and his revanchist goals in Eastern Europe.


Meanwhile, the Communist Party observes Ukraine and sees how Putin’s war continues to backfire: instead of an easy takeover, he has lost tens of thousands of soldiers; instead of weakening NATO and the West, he has strengthened the free world’s resolve; and instead of reunification, he is causing deep rifts within his own country.


One year ago, the world was still hopeful that Putin’s threats, maneuvers, and calls for “unification” would not lead to war despite his previous invasions of Georgia and Crimea. Today, we see Russia’s campaign of terrorism and violence continue as the war nears its one year anniversary.


China must be as surprised as Putin in seeing Ukraine's resolve and the free world’s coalition led by President Biden with the support of the U.S. Congress. So far.


Just this week, the Biden administration authorized sending 30 Abrams tanks to Ukraine; Germany announced it is sending dozens of Leopard 2 tanks.



Does Taiwan rhyme with Finland?

Seeing the parallels between Taiwan and Ukraine becomes clearer through the lens of the history of the Soviet Union, including what happened in the Winter War between the USSR and Finland in 1939 (ten years before Chinese nationalists fled to Taiwan). The Soviets invaded ethnically similar Finland, at the same time that Germany did the same to its neighbors in Central Europe.


Citing the conclusions of Stanford’s James D. Fearon, Kastner writes about the dangers of accommodation and appeasement and why a country may choose to “roll the dice” and accept war over loss of territory or independence.

“Fearon suggests the Winter War between the Soviet Union and Finland can be explained in part by this dynamic, where Finland preferred to fight rather than yield to Soviet demands to cede some small islands in the Gulf of Finland that Moscow viewed as strategically important: here, Helsinki feared that ceding the islands would give the USSR more leverage to demand further concessions in the future, and Stalin presumably couldn’t be trusted to honor a promise not to do so. Leaders in Taiwan will likewise be reluctant to accommodate the PRC by yielding ground on the island’s sovereign status, unless they can be confident that Beijing could be trusted to honor commitments not to take advantage of the increased bargaining power such accommodation would provide. Unfortunately, there are a number of reasons to doubt the credibility of PRC promises in this regard…”

As for the possibility of actual war between China and Taiwan, Kastner admits pessimism but says conflict is not inevitable. He notes the precariousness of Taiwan’s position: unable to declare total independence as a sovereign nation but also unable to appease China, which would risk losing freedom and democracy for its people.


USS Antietam (CG-54) and USS Chancellorsville (CG-62) transit the Taiwan Strait in August 2022. (MC2 Justin Stack)
Prevention of conflict, Kastner says, depends on good communication and information, as well as continued credible commitment to deterrence in the name of peace [to echo Gen. Milley].

“If the United States were to abandon Taiwan,” Kastner writes, “the risk of cross-strait war would likely increase.” There may be no evidence that Mark Twain ever said, “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” But in an unpublished manuscript, “Mark Twain in Eruption,” he did write that “It is not worthwhile to try to keep history from repeating itself, for man’s character will always make the preventing of the repetitions impossible.”


In “War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait” Kastner includes a huge section of historical and analytical notes and another lengthy set of references, including Shelley Rigger, Michael Beckley, Jessica Chen Weiss, Qiang Xin, Robert Sutter, Alan Romberg, Russell Hsiao, Richard C. Bush, Thomas J. Christensen, T. Y. Wang, and James D. Fearon, among dozens of other experts.


Unfortunately, there is a dearth of analysis in this book of the role and importance of Japan, not to mention other nations such as the Australia, New Zealand, and the Republic of the Philippines and as part of the strategic balance in the region. Kastner admits early in his introduction that his work is an overall analysis, not an evaluation of military strategy, weapons systems, or potential PRC planning. Still, for Navy readers this book presents a worthwhile examination of ambiguity and precariousness in the Taiwan Strait.


Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley speak at the eighth Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, Jan. 20, 2023. The meeting brought together representatives from more than 50 nations and organizations to determine the best way to get the military capabilities that Ukraine needs to repel Russian forces from their sovereign territory. (DoD photo by U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Jack Sanders)

Monday, January 2, 2023

Power of a Woman in Power

Review by Bill Doughty––

She was born March 26, 1940, nine months before Imperial Japan attacked Oahu and Pearl Harbor. The Second World War had already been waging for years in Europe and Asia. Like millions of Americans, she came from a family with deep roots in Europe.


Nancy D’Alesandro’s father was U.S. Representative Thomas D’Alesandro Jr., of Baltimore, Maryland., a second-generation American whose own father had immigrated to the United States from Italy. He was a vocal activist on behalf of Jews in Europe who were targeted by the Nazis, and his advocacy had a profound influence on his daughter, the future Nancy Pelosi.

Susan Page writes in “Madam Speaker: Nancy Pelosi and the Lessons of Power –– a Biography” (Hachette Book Group, 2021) about Pelosi’s father’s strong defense of European jews, including in a speech on the House floor in 1943:

“‘Daily, hourly, the greatest crime of all time is being committed.’ D’Alesandro had declared. ‘A defenseless and innocent people is being slaughtered in a wholesale massacre of millions.’

Years later, Nancy Pelosi would cite the influence that her father’s support of the Bergson Group had on her. It was a factor when she decided to break with another Democratic president, Bill Clinton, on the issue of China and human rights. She was Clinton’s ally on most issues but a thorn in his side on this one. She had been a little girl when World War II ended, but she remembered with pride the example her father had set. ‘His enthusiasm came from doing what he believed was right,’ she said.”

Page’s biography of Pelosi is a fully satisfying examination of her beliefs, ethics, strategies, and embrace of power. “Madam Speaker” covers Pelosi’s early years growing up in Baltimore’s Little Italy, her ties to politics from an early age, her devout Catholic faith, and her legacy as the first woman Speaker of the House.


One of the many great and unexpected photos in this book is one from 1957 of 16-year-old Nancy with then-Senator from Massachusetts John F. Kennedy, Navy hero of WWII, whose “Profiles in Courage” had recently been published.


Pelosi came of age during the Cold War and in the Civil Rights era. She would meet JFK again in 1961 when then-President Kennedy appointed her father as a member of the Renegotiation Board.

Though she was always close to politics, her first priority was to her own immediate family in San Francisco. She and Paul Pelosi have five children. In her autobiography (which could serve as an inspiration for military servicewomen and spouses), “Know Your Power: A Message to America’s Daughters” (Doubleday 2008), Pelosi writes, “Raising a family is challenging. I want women to know that the skills I acquired as a mother and homemaker have been invaluable to me. These same skills –– so often undervalued –– are transferable to many other arenas in life, including the United States Congress.”

Pelosi says her leadership skills were forged by her children, even more than by her parents. She had five kids in six years, which forced her to develop her modus operandi: “efficiency, teamwork, and organization.”


Among her favorite axioms are:

  • “Let’s have some cooperation.”
  • “Proper preparation prevents poor performance.”
  • “Seize the moment when you can; play the long game when you can’t.”
  • “Our diversity is our strength; our unity is our power.”
  • “Be ready to seize power.”
  • And, of course, “Know your power.”

With five young children, she says she had good practice dealing with temper tantrums, a skill that helped her deal with some members of Congress and with other senior elected leaders.


Pelosi, who arrived in the U.S. House of Representatives at the age of 47, credits mentors –– women and men –– for contributing to her success and ability to gain power and influence. Susan Page writes about one of those mentors:

“Representative John Murtha, Democrat of Pennsylvania, was a general in the Old Guard. The blunt-spoken former Marine, the recipient of two Purple Hearts and the first Vietnam veteran elected to Congress, had been serving in the House for a quarter of a century. He was a powerhouse on the Appropriations Committee, especially on military issues. In more ways than one, his district in south-central Pennsylvania, dependent on steel and coal, was as distant from San Francisco as it could be.

Yet Murtha and Pelosi somehow hit it off.”

Pelosi had opposed the Vietnam War. And, while she supported the war in Afghanistan, she became a powerful voice against Bush’s war in Iraq, calling it “one of the biggest mistakes in American history.” Page writes, “They were at war over the war in Iraq.”


Reps. Jack Murtha and Nancy Pelosi
At first, Pelosi’s position was also at odds with that of Rep. Murtha, “a leading voice on defense policy” who had voted to go to war after being contacted by then-Vice President Dick Cheney. But eventually Murtha came around to Pelosi’s position and regretted his vote. “He called the war ‘a flawed policy wrapped in illusion,’” Page writes. (Murtha was a recipient of the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award in 2006.)

Pelosi stepped up her campaign against the war after Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” landing on USS Abraham Lincoln, May 1, 2003, suggesting to Bush that he change course, reach out to the Islamic world, and work with Allies instead of deploying a preemptive “go-it-alone foreign policy.” Page writes, “Pelosi said he impatiently dismissed the idea.”


Throughout her two terms as Speaker, Pelosi championed Veterans issues, especially those related to health care. Six months ago (a year after publication of Page’s book), Pelosi oversaw House passage of the PACT act, to help Veterans exposed to toxic substances during military service. She made many visits to military bases over the years, both in Asia and Europe. She visited Camp Leatherneck on Mother's Day in 2012 (top photo by Spc. Chelsea Russell).

(PO1 Jonathan Carmichael)

Murtha retired in 2008, two years before he passed away at 77. He wrote in notes for an intended memoir that Pelosi had as “good a political mind as anyone I have ever seen,” and once remarked that she was “one of the premier leaders in America today.” Other leaders, including U.S. presidents, world leaders, and colleagues have had similar praise for her skills and achievements. According to Page:

“Through the first two decades of the twenty-first century, Nancy Pelosi would stand at center stage during an era of domestic and global disruption.

She was the senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee in the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attacks that started the century, in 2001. She was the senior member of Congress to oppose the Iraq War from its beginning. She was the most persistent congressional critic of China on human rights, challenging both Democratic and Republican presidents on the issue. She was the irresistible force pushing through controversial pieces of major legislation, most notably the Wall Street bailout and the Affordable Care Act. She was the top fund-raiser and strategist who twice led Democrats to wrest back control of the House, in 2006 and 2018. She took the lead in negotiating massive relief packages in response to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.”

Pelosi initiated several congressional efforts to hold ex-President Trump accountable for his actions while in office –– including two impeachments and creation of the bipartisan House select committee inquiry into the January 6, 2021 insurrection. Since publication of Page’s “Madam Secretary,” Pelosi led House efforts to pass landmark bills such as the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, and the Respect for Marriage Act. She moved gun safety legislation successfully through the House, but was blocked by the Senate. She made a trip to Taiwan and Ukraine to demonstrate support for those democracies. Pelosi has been a steadfast champion of military defense aid and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine in the wake of Putin’s invasion and Russia’s war.


Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, addresses the audience during the Congressional Gold Medal Ceremony held to honor Merchant Mariners of WWII at the U.S. Capital, May 18, 2022. During WWII Merchant Mariners put their lives on the line for their country, braving German and Japanese submarines, in their Liberty Ships, as they delivered critical supplies for service members serving in the European and Pacific theaters. (U.S. Navy photo by Bill Mesta)


“Not everyone sees her legacy in a positive light, of course,” Page observes. “Republicans have demonized her as a rigid ideologue and deployed her as a weapon to raise funds.”


Speaker Pelosi steps down officially from House leadership when the 118th Congress begins its term this week. She has already handed the reins of her caucus’s power to a new generation, led by her successor, incoming Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries, whom Pelosi mentored. She stands out in history for her courage, conviction, and conscientious use of her power.


Both “Madam Secretary” and “Know Your Power” are inspirational reads for women and men in the 21st century.


Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi meets with military service members during her visit to Yokota Air Base, Japan, Aug. 5, 2022. During her visit to Japan, Speaker Pelosi met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to discuss strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance and a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Hannah Bean)