Unbelievable! ‘Putin’s Playbook’

Review by Bill Doughty

It seems Unbelievable. There are 150,000 Russian troops and dozens of ships and submarines surrounding the independent free democratic nation of Ukraine.

Putin, who invaded Georgia and Crimea in recent decades, says he has no intention of attacking his neighbor, but is he telling the truth? Does he respect Ukraine’s border? Hasn't Putin already demonstrated a pattern of aggression, including revanchism?

In “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America” (Regnery Gateway, 2021), Rebekah Koffler makes the case that Putin not only wants to invade Ukraine, but also plans for an all-out war with the United States.

Koffler is a former U.S. intelligence analyst. Her reason for having to leave the intelligence community, in her own words, is not only surprising but shocking. More on that twist to her narrative later.

USS Lake Erie (CG-70) arrives in Pearl Harbor during RIMPAC 2008. (MC3 Paul Honnick)

Navy readers will be interested in several references in “Putin’s Playbook” to naval leaders (including Vice Adm. Arthur K. Cebrowski and General James Mattis) and events (such as Operation Burnt Frost [involving the shooting down of a disabled satellite by USS Lake Erie (CG-70) in 2008], Navy personnel helping rebuild floors of the American embassy in Moscow, and Koffler’s walk through the gate at the Naval Research Lab).

Koffler’s “Putin’s Playbook” itself is a messy amalgam of history, biography, advice, conjecture, and personal grievance. She offers a disclaimer that her views do not represent those of the government, followed by an author’s note strongly disagreeing with DIA/CIA redactions, which she prints as part of the text. Yet, out of the mess we can find potential gems of insight.

For example, she explains Putin’s own grievance over the collapse of the USSR and losing the Cold War. She writes about two philosophers who shaped his thinking: “In addition to Eurasianist influence, Putin drew his ideology from the ideas espoused by two Russian thinkers”: Ivan Il’in (1882-1954) and Lev Gumilev (1912-1992). Il’in was a Russian Orthodox Christian who believed Western democracies were dangerous; he considered that “an independent Ukraine would be an unthinkable ‘madness.’ Meanwhile, Gumilev, an anthropologist and historian, believed in a “super-ethnos” of Mother Russia. Eurasian vs. European. Slavs/Steppes vs. Anglo-Saxons. Us vs. them.

Putin uses ethnicity to justify threats of aggression against his neighbors. It may be hard for people in free democracies to understand his hardline, strongman attitude and why the people of Russia seem to support him as well as how he stays in office for decades.

Koffler says it is a mistake to see Putin and Russia through American eyes. Vladimir Putin and his supporters are steeped in grievance, superstition, resentment, and righteousness. Putin and his followers seem to have a boundless capacity for inflicting and enduring suffering. The list of political opponents, reformers, and journalists who have been poisoned, shot, or mysteriously killed by Putin’s Russia is long and alarming.

According to Koffler, “trust” is not a concept in Russia. (And, by the way, she says there is no word in Russian for “fun”).

Yet, Koffler seems to idolize Putin: “When Putin assumed the reigns (sic) of Russia, his first order of business was to restore internal stability, reverse the economic crisis, and reassert state control of most, if not all, aspects of life in Russia." Koffler says Putin was committed to restoring “law and order” and “respect towards Russia internationally.” “Putin delivered on his promise to the Russians.” “He has restored domestic stability, improved the Russian economy, and modernized the military to the point where even the Pentagon must play catch up in certain areas. Putin’s Russia is back on the map,” she boasts. 

Biden speaks with Putin

Koffler writes, “At sixty-eight, Putin is highly athletic and personifies strength. Acting as a benevolent patriarch…” Weirdly, she says: “Putin may be a villain, but he is not a supervillain.” “His rule has been far less brutal than that of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin or even the czars.”

Putin further justifies his aggression against his neighbors because of his fear and resentment of more free democracies on his borders and potential NATO expansion. It seems he would rather fight others, including Europe and the United States, than try to get along:

“Putin is stirring up chaos and disorder in America to save himself from a regime overthrow that he believes Washington seeks. Putin believes that destabilizing America by amplifying internal strife through social media and covert interference will help prevent an all-out war, which he would be ready to fight with the U.S. under certain scenarios. As the United States continues to try to peel off Ukraine from Russia’s orbit, it may be prudent to make a thorough intelligence assessment as to whether Putin would invade Ukraine if Washington pushes too hard. Before we consider such a move for Moscow ‘highly unlikely,’ it is worth remembering that Putin understands how Americans think but doesn’t think like them. He thinks like a Russian and a former KGB operative. While it may have seemed irrational to American national security experts that Putin took over Ukraine’s Crimea, for the Russian president, the long-term risk of not having Crimea as part of Russia outweighed the short-term risk of invading it.”

In the face of a growing Russian military threat on Ukraine’s border in recent days, weeks, and months, the Biden administration and European allies have strengthened diplomatic resolve, committed to finding a path to resolve tension and prevent war. Analysts say Putin's actions have boomeranged and only strengthened NATO's resolve and solidarity.

Putin has been warned that if his military invades Ukraine again on whatever pretext or justification, there will be dire consequences, including severe international sanctions. But Koffler writes:

“Sanctions or not, Putin has shown during the past decade that he will invade or destabilize Russia’s former republics –– as he did in Ukraine and Georgia –– rather than let them switch sides to NATO and the European Union. He will continue to unbalance America through cyber warfare and other tools in his playbook rather than let Washington democratize the former Soviet Eurasian countries. He understand well that he is playing a risky game that can lead to an escalation of tensions. But risk is something that Putin is accustomed to; it is a way of life for a former KGB officer. Bred as an intel operative, he plans for contingencies. Therefore he has a plan in his playbook for an all-out war with America.”

Koffler says that Russia’s war with America would be five-pronged: (1) space, attacking satellites; (2) cyber weapons; (3) spies and disrupters, infiltrating America; (4) active measures including subversion, election sabotage, and assassinations; and (5) all-out kinetic warfare, up to and possibly including nuclear weapons.

U.S. Navy's fourth Mobile User Objective System (MUOS) communications satellite lifts off from Space Launch Complex-41. (United Launch Alliance)

As expressed several times in her book, Koffler is a rock-solid supporter of her former boss, retired General Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty to lying under oath about his contacts with Russian officials in the lead up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Former President Trump pardoned Flynn as well as other close associates with ties to Russia and a plot to overturn the 2020 election. Koffler calls former Defense Intelligence Agency Director Flynn an “American patriot.”

Michael Flynn and then-President Trump (D. Myles Cullen, DoD)

She defends Trump’s “patriotic desire” regarding his call with Ukraine President Zelensky in 2019. In that call, which led to his first impeachment, Trump tried to get Zelensky to announce an investigation into the Biden family during the U.S. presidential campaign, and the former president tied the request to a withholding of arms and other support to Ukraine.

Koffler says, believably, that Putin’s Russia is behind the schism in the United States between the Right and Left, fomenting mistrust in free elections and in democracy itself. She acknowledges Russia’s aggressive attempts to target U.S. elections and influence people through fake social media accounts.

Though she calls the Trump-Russia investigation a “witch hunt,” Koffler makes no reference to Rudy Giuliani, Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, and others in Trump’s orbit who actively worked with Russians. No mention of Trump Tower plans in Moscow or Russian investment in the Trump corporation. No mention of Trump’s public request for Russia and China to help him discredit his political opponent. No mention of Trump taking Putin’s side over his own intelligence community in 2016. 

And no mention of the January 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection by Trump supporters, even though her book was published in late July.

Koffler

Koffler, who is a contributor to Fox News, does not offer an opinion about Tucker Carlson’s pro-Russia and pro-authoritarian stances.

She presents a mere half-paragraph about Putin challenger Alexey Navalny and a bare mention of Russian agent Maria Butina, who infiltrated the NRA and influenced members of the Republican Party. She warns, instead, about the “Left’s true agenda”: single-payer healthcare, gun control, and –– deceivingly –– “defunding the police,” a phrase denounced by all Democratic leaders.

With no intended irony, Koffler writes, “It is high time for Americans and the U.S. government to understand how Russian disinformation works so we don’t become our own deceivers.”

As to why she is no longer a member of the intelligence community, Koffler explains how she was challenged after a background clearance investigation. Then, she gives a lengthy explanation of how a flight to Washington, D.C., had to make an emergency landing because of her behavior. She says, “what transpired next was straight out of Stephen King.” She was handcuffed by police and questioned by the FBI because of her disruption on the airplane. After the incident, the Intelligence Community issued psychological tests in which testers found “something not quite normal.”

She blames “deep-state operatives,” “bean-counters, “bureaucrats,” and “American apparatchiks” for destroying her career and her plan to be Deputy NIO for Cyber on the National Intelligence Council at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Ultimately, readers must choose what to believe based on what Koffler chooses to present. In her opinion, the United States is no longer a free refuge for immigrants like her, she says: “And unlike me, my children and other God-loving Americans will have nowhere to flee.” But while warning of the dangers of leftwing socialism, she largely ignores the threats of rightwing authoritarianism and totalitarianism.

It may seem to be unbelievable, but history shows how fascism can arise from both the Left and/or the Right.

While there are gems of analysis about Russia to discover in this book there are other authors that are far more insightful and rewarding to help understand Putin and modern Russia. I've found Garry Kasparov to be a particularly strong voice, particularly in his warnings against appeasing Putin; I reviewed his book "Winter Is Coming" in 2017.

I just started reading Fiona Hill’s “There Is Nothing for You Here: Finding Opportunity in the 21st Century.” I’m only a few chapters in, but so far, it’s a much deeper and more rewarding book, both as a biography and as a geopolitical analysis. Hill is the former deputy assistant to the president and senior director for European and Russian affairs on the National Security Council. Hill served Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald J. Trump with honor, courage, and commitment.

From the publisher: “Rebekah Koffler, is a Russian-born U.S. intelligence expert who served as a Russian Doctrine & Strategy specialist in the Defense Intelligence Agency… Rebekah is a writer and national security commentator whose work has been published on the Fox News website, The Hill, the Daily Caller, the New York Post, and the Washington Times. She has appeared on Fox News, One America News, News Nation Now, Newsmax TV, and the Sean Hannity nationally syndicated radio show.”

TOP PHOTO: From left, U.S. Army Europe and Africa Deputy Commanding General for Army National Guard, Maj. Gen. Joe Jarrard, U.S. Ambassador to Poland, Mark Brzezinski and Polish Land Forces 16th Mechanized Division Commander, Maj. Gen. Krzysztof Radomski walk and talk before the Battle Group Poland hand over, take over ceremony at Bemowo Piskie Training Area, Poland, Feb. 11, 2022. The ceremony demonstrated NATO's continued commitment to the collective defense and security of our allies on NATO's eastern flank. (Spc. Jameson Harris)