'All Hell Breaking Loose'

Review by Bill Doughty–

The United States Navy may face ongoing existential threats because of pandemics, mega-droughts, fires, massive storms, and rising sea levels – caused by or made worse by climate change.

That's according to scientists, analysts and educators, including Michael T. Klare in "All Hell Breaking Loose: The Pentagon's Perspective on Climate Change" (Metropolitan Books, Henry Holt Company, 2019). 

Already impacted by COVID-19, the military is also straining to retain readiness as it confronts potential threats in the Arctic as ice melts and nations, especially Russia, compete for resources and sea lanes. And with increasing calls for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief missions in response to devastating storms, diseases and environmental destruction, military leaders are concerned about "the specter of disaster clusters."

This relevant book is a well-written and sobering look at the threats, impact and mitigation response by the military, especially led by the Navy.

Chapter One opens with a Senate Armed Service Committee hearing of April 9, 2013, in which then Commander, U.S. Pacific Command Adm. Samuel J. Locklear testified about the threat of not only China and North Korea, but also climate change: "Increasingly severe weather patterns and rising sea levels threaten lives and property," Locklear said, "and could even threaten the loss of low-lying nations."

"A similar assessment was provided in 2019 by one of Locklear's successors at what had been rechristened the Indo-Pacific Command. Asked by Senator Elizabeth Warren of the Senate Armed Services Committee to discuss the impact of climate change on operational readiness in his area of responsibility, Admiral Philip S. Davidson replied: 'The immediate manifestation, ma'am, is the number of ecological disaster events that are happening.' In just the past few months, he indicated, the Indo-Pacific Command had been called on to assist with emergency relief operations in the U.S.-administered Northern Mariana Islands after they were struck by Super Typhoon Yutu. 'Our assistance in terms of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, our ability to command and control, to marshal troops, to deliver logistics, is important training for the region.'"

Klare shows how training and warfighting are negatively impacted by more frequent heatwaves, when it becomes too deadly to operate. Conversely, the military is also challenged in super-cold environments such as Red Dawn-like exercises in Norway in sub-Arctic terrain, in which hundreds of U.S. Marines must train in amphibious assaults. There are "distinctive challenges in fighting in snow-covered sub-zero conditions," according to Klare.

"Climate change," he says, "will make itself felt in multiple situations, increasing the risk that long-standing hostilities will erupt into full-scale war." Another likely scenario: millions of displaced people as mega-fires, freshwater shortages, monster storms and rising sea levels cause mass migration.

U.S. Navy Lt. Jose Garcia inactivates Ebola virus at Bushrod Island, Liberia, Oct. 2014.

Klare writes, "For many observers, the Ebola epidemic of 2014-2016 represents a preview of what can be expected in the future as global warming advances, certain infectious diseases extend their range and vulnerable states prove unable to cope with the multiple challenges of extreme weather, resource scarcity, and inadequate public institutions." He cites Zika, dengue and malaria as other diseases of concern.

The Navy has a history of responding to crises, including within our own country, but also throughout the world. "Our country is a compassionate, generous and caring nation with a long history of aiding those around the world who are impacted by disasters," said Adm. Kurt Tidd as a relief effort commenced to the Caribbean in response to Hurricane Maria in 2017. 

That year, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria "pummeled Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico, prompting an unprecedented U.S. military response." 

Perhaps the biggest existential threat of global climate change to the Navy, though, is the impact to its bases themselves, especially those located at or near sea level.

Klare gives an extensive report on the dangers of rising sea levels to Navy bases, especially in Virginia and Florida, particularly Norfolk (featured in a special hosted by Arnold Schwarzegger), Hampton Roads Mayport, Jacksonville and Key West. Scientists predict a possible nearly two-meter sea level rise by the end of the century; a one meter rise would "inundate Norfolk," headquarters of the U.S. Atlantic Fleet and many other commands.

Rear Adm. Bolivar gives thumbs up prior to surveying damage from Hurricane Michael, Oct. 2018.

He quotes Commander Navy Region Southeast Rear Admiral Babette Bolivar, who issued an evacuation order in September 2017 for nonessential personnel from Naval Air Station Key West as Hurricane Irma "carved its destructive path" toward Florida. A year later Hurricanes Florence and Michael caused destruction at Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort and Marine Corps Training Depot Parris Island, South Carolina.

"When Hurricane Florence shifted course and headed to the Carolinas instead of the Norfolk area in September 2018, those bases were severely impacted; normal operations were suspended and nonessential personnel ordered to evacuate. Camp Lejuene, a major Marine training center, was especially hard hit by Florence, with some nine hundred buildings damaged or destroyed. As sea levels rise, flooding of Lejeune's low-lying areas is likely to occur on a daily basis and large parts of it can expect to be fully inundated during future hurricanes. Parris Island, the Marines' main East Coast recruit training facility, and MCAS Beaufort, home to six Marine F/A-18 fighter squadrons, are equally at risk of inundation. At present, a storm surge of five to ten feet induced by a Category 1 hurricane would cover some 90 percent of Parris Island; by 2100, almost the entire base would be covered by ten to fifteen feet of water. MCAS Beaufort faces similar risks." (Klare cites Union of Concerned Scientists studies and reports.)

We read how Naval Base Coronado in San Diego is at risk, as is fire-prone Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, also in California. Wildfires threaten bases throughout the Southwest, and Alaska military facilities are in danger from shoreline erosion and/or thawing permafrost. Offutt Air Force Base near Omaha, Nebraska, home of the U.S. Strategic Command, is seriously affected by flooding due to storms.

Aircrewmen load an Air-Deployable Expendable Ice Buoy onto a Royal Danish Air Force C-130 aircraft at Thule Air Force Base in Greenland Sept. 7, 2017, in preparation for deployment in the high Arctic as part of the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP). (U.S. Navy photo by John F. Williams)

Overseas bases and sites, including in the Middle East, Africa and Central and South America are also under threat from the effects of global warming. 

"For forces operating in the Asia-Pacific area, sea-level rise and extreme storm events are likely to pose the greatest dangers," Klare says, focusing on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands, which is the location of the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Site, at risk from saltwater intrusion into its freshwater aquifer.

"Elsewhere in the region, the DoD faces a substantial climate threat to its cluster of air and naval bases in Japan. These installations, including the naval base at Yokosuka on Japan's main island of Honshu, and Kadena Air Force Base, on Okinawa, are among the most important U.S. military facilities in Asia. Yokosuka, located on the mouth of Tokyo Harbor, hosts the USS Ronald Reagan (America's only forward-deployed carrier) and its supporting vessels; Kadena is the largest Air Force facility in East Asia, housing the 18th Air Wing and a host of other units. Both of these bases, and many others nearby, are located on or close to the Pacific Ocean and are regularly menaced by typhoons. As global warming proceeds, these facilities – like their counterparts in the estern United States – will be exposed to rising seas and an ever-increasing risk of extremely powerful storms."

Using science-based research and common sense, the Navy has shown significant leadership in the approach to climate change for more than ten years, with admirals and civilian leaders unafraid to speak truth to power.

In fact, 2016 marked a watershed year as then Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus launched the Great Green Fleet, named in stark contrast to President Teddy Roosevelt's Great White Fleet that sailed more than a century earlier, which was powered strictly by carbon-based fuel. The GGF was essentially the John C. Stennis (CVN 74) Strike Group, led by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and including the guided-missile cruiser USS Mobile Bay (CG 53) and guided-missile destroyers USS Chung-Hoon (DDG 93) and USS William P. Lawrence (DDG 110), each running on alternatives to conventional petroleum. The surface ships steamed underway using a hybrid fuel mixture.

Then SECNAV Ray Mabus talks Navy sustainability at the greengov symposium, June 2015.

Klare acknowledges Mabus's initiative may have had only a minimal contribution to slowing the advance of global warning, "Still, the Great Green Fleet does represent a significant effort by a large and powerful organization to at least start transitioning from carbon-based fuels to climate-friendlier alternatives."

Klare concludes with a hopeful look at how the insight and initiatives by the military, including net-zero goals, could be emulated by the civilian community.

"Equally insightful is the U.S. military's emphasis on cooperation with the militaries of friendly nations in addressing the perils of climate change. From the very beginning, senior officials have stressed the need to work with other countries in reducing their own climate change vulnerabilities, thereby enhancing regional and international stability. In accordance with this precept, U.S. services have collaborated with foreign militaries in preparing for extreme event, for example, by stockpiling emergency relief supplies, conducting joint disaster relief drills, and helping to harden critical facilities. Although modest in comparison to what is actually needed to protect the world from warming's severe effects, these endeavors demonstrate a basic understanding that human survival at this perilous moment will require international collaboration of just this sort."

The Pentagon has confronted the issue of climate change in various publications and plans: DoD's "Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap;" Quadrennial Defense Reviews over the past ten years; DoD Directive 4715.21, "Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience;" 2019's "Report on Effects of A Changing Climate to the Department of Defense;" and Naval Facilities and Engineering Command's "Climate Change Installation Adaptation and Resilience Planning Handbook."