Asian Perspective

Review by Bill Doughty

East or West? Free for all or a free-for-all? Who's up and what's down in evolving global relationships?

"Those who are looking for either rigid lines of alliance or moral clarity among Asia's shifting partnerships will find themselves in an Escher painting."

What's needed is a new perspective.

In "The Future Is Asian" (Simon & Schuster, 2019) author Parac Khanna notes that civilization was born in West Asia. "Asia dominated the Old World, while the West led the New World – and now we are coming to a truly global world. There is no turning back from today's multipolar, multicivilizational order."

While China plays a central role in the future global order, those "shifting partnerships" and tenuous loyalties are especially evident in the maritime commons, where "each littoral state has a different name for its portion of the South China Sea."

Gunner’s Mate 2nd Class Blake Rodenas uses the “big eyes” on the starboard bridge wing of the Independence-variant littoral combat ship USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS 10) while in the South China Sea, Dec. 23, 2019. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Damon Grosvenor)

As Capitalism becomes a common link even in China and Russia, the waterways throughout Asia, including in and around the Arab states, become even more strategically important. This week China, Russia and Iran are conducting an anti-piracy/anti-terrorism maritime exercise in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman. 

"The more South and East Asians engage with the Gulf region, the more they will want to protect their investments. China, India, Japan, and numerous other Asian powers have all stepped up their freedom of navigation, counterpiracy, and other naval drills in the western Indian Ocean. India, seeking to recover the Chola Dynasty's maritime might, has increased its naval acquisition to more than a quarter of its defense spending with the aim of becoming the gatekeeper of the eponymous Indian Ocean. In the name of maintaining a 'free and open Indo-Pacific,' India and Japan cooperate in the annual Malabar Exercise with the United States, which has renamed its Pacific forces to Indo-Pacific Command. China is also seeking to recover its Ming Dynasty glory, sending flotillas to the Indian Ocean led by modern-day Zheng Hes. China alone has four times as many destroyers, frigates, and other surface warships as India (though still fewer than the United States and Japan). In the coming years, it may anchor more of them in Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port – which the government leased to China in 2017 for ninety-nine years after being unable to repay the loans for the port's construction – or even the Maldives, which was agreed to become a maritime hub of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China's more active presence in India's maritime theater has the country on high alert."

Quartermaster 2nd Class Ziolan Bondoc, from Riverside, California, assists with navigation in the bridge of the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Antietam (CG 54) in the Philippine Sea, June 13, 2018, during exercise Malabar between U.S., Japan and Indian maritime forces. (MC2 William McCann)

Khanna presents in detail the nuances of Asian relationships. For example: Turkey's Erdogan who has "lurched toward Asia;" Israel "ever more a part of the Asian system;" Pakistan's rumored Chinese naval base on the Jiwani peninsula "to challenge the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet;" Myanmar as a strategic investment for China, India and Japan; and Vietnam's "pugnacious" approach toward China – "Vietnam is not afraid to send its navy to collide with Chinese vessels and oil rigs trespassing in its water."

Vietnam People’s Navy Lt. Cmdr. Le Thanh Binh, July 16, at RIMPAC 2018. (MC2 Kory Alsberry)

He notes that in 2018 the United States invited Vietnam to participate in the Rim of the Pacific exercise in Hawaii, while excluding China.

Meanwhile, "China's enormous investments in antiship ballistic missiles, stealth submarines, robotic warships, electromagnetic railguns, swarming drones, and militarized reclaimed islands and shoals in the South China Sea (are) all intended to push U.S. forces east of the international date line."

"At the same time, China knows it is not omnipotent. Though it has enormous leverage over most of its neighbors, even military triumph in outstanding disputes may generate such adverse political and economic backlash that it is not worth the price. China cannot assure itself that seizing the multitude of disputed islands and mountains on its periphery would not lead to a blockage of its BRI projects or large-scale diversion of foreign financial and industrial activity. China has learned from Japan's hyperaggression and the United States' overstretch to show restraint and caution, not pursue invasion and occupation."

Khanna shows how Russia and China are getting closer. "Asian states are forging new geometries of cooperation," Khanna writes, including "budding military cooperation among Japan, Vietnam and India; between Australia and Japan; between India and Indonesia; among China, Malaysia and Sri Lanka; and among China, Thailand and Cambodia." Asian nations, including especially China, are investing in and trading with African countries.



"The Future is Asian" presents a scholarly history, a present state of affairs, and predictions for what may unfold in countries throughout the region, including Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan and North Korea.

"North Korea will be the true test of whether Northeast Asia can move from strategic suspicion to tactical adjustments. North Korea has been thought of as an isolated failed state, but the fact that its covert nuclear program has had links as far as Pakistan's A.Q. Khan nuclear smuggling network, its chemical weapons program to Syria's Bashar al-Assad, its ballistic missile program to Iran, and its cyber-surveillance tools to Russia, are all evidence of the seedier side of the Asian system. Asian states can conspire to form an 'axis of resistance' to perceived U.S. hegemony."

Khanna notes that claims by the United States of domination and exceptionalism ("America First") ring hollow and sanctimonious to Asian ears. Harmony and humility are valued over power and pride.

Asians in general, Khanna argues, prefer "cooperation over anger" and "action over argument" – including when dealing with common issues like water shortages, agricultural challenges, inequality and poverty, immigration, pollution and climate change. "China, Japan and India are all major exporters of solar, wind, nuclear and other energy technologies that reduce our global carbon footprint."

Robot Astro Boy

Keys for future success are in education and technology, Khanna asserts. Asians' views of AI and robots are closer to Astroboy (called "Atom" in Japan) rather than Terminator, he asserts.

Along with education and technology, technocracy is embraced. Freedom and democracy do not work without an educated citizenry led by experienced and thoughtful representatives and leaders. Khanna holds up Singapore and itsstatesman Lee Kuan Yew as models of excellence.

Still, he warns of technocracy leading to authoritarian governments that can practice corruption and trample civil rights. "Always beware the oligarch in disguise ... The essence of technocracy is improving governance, not preserving one's own rule."

"After observing Russia's manipulation of Facebook in the 2016 U.S. election – and viral videos sparking riots in India and Myanmar – Asians have recruited Facebook and WhatsApp to actively screen and counter viral hoaxes to ensure that 'fake news' does not destabilize communal harmony. As the economist Danny Quah puts it, free-for-all populist cultures resemble the comments section of online newspapers: they get hijacked by ranting trolls. A better model might be liberal societies in which officials act more like Wikipedia editors who ensure veracity and a sense of order."

Thefts of intellectual properties, tariffs, greed, revanchism and destruction of the environment are challenges for a peaceful future.

Khanna contends that Americanization is giving way to Asianization, even in Europe, and that "Asia is the most powerful force reshaping the world order today." He writes, "To appreciate just how rapidly global order can realign, consider the arc of the post-WWII era."

Whether or not readers agree with all of the author's conclusions and recommendations, especially his views on democracy, he compels us to consider other perspectives and how we approach the future – with less self-centeredness and arrogance and instead with greater humility, honesty and reflection.

Parag Khanna has served as an advisor to the U.S. National Intelligence Council and U.S. Special Operations Forces.