Review by Bill Doughty––
China is growing its navy to control sea lanes and sea lines of communication after sailing a “Century of Humiliation” with boatloads of victimization, anxiety over food security, and obsessions about containment, demarkation, and entitlement.
“Control” is the operative word; “freedom” is not –– which mirrors the Communist Chinese Party’s overall philosophy of leadership in the People’s Republic of China.
President Xi and the People’s Liberation Army Navy are actively building a “world-class” blue water naval force as they fortify rings of islands, build a “Belt and Road Initiative,” and create anti-access and area denial capability. Michael A. McDevitt explains how in “China as a Twenty First Century Naval Power: Theory, Practice, and Implications” (Naval Institute Press; 2020).
Rear Adm. (ret.) McDevitt keeps the history lesson to a minimum and instead maximizes discussion of current and future development of PLAN resources, strategies, and capabilities.
He offers careful and couched predictions with humility about the “big uncertainty” of 2035 maritime goals of both China and the United States.
But he makes a bold statement about what the PLAN has already achieved in 2020:
“When one considers all the categories that collectively add up to the comprehensive maritime power –– navy, coast guard, militia, merchant marine, port infrastructure, shipbuilding, fishing –– one sees that China is already a global leader, or is among the top to or three in the world. No other country can match China’s maritime capabilities across the board. For example, the United States has the world’s leading navy, but in terms of quantity, and some cases quality, its shipbuilding, merchant marine, coast guard, and fisheries pale in comparison with China’s. In 2013, China caught 16.3 million tons of fish compared to the American 5.2 million tons. The comparison of coast guard cutters (those of over five hundred tons) is equally stark: Chinese Coast Guard, 225, versus U.S. Coast Guard, 40.”
This combined public-private power translates to a “formidable” force in home waters, and “China as a Twenty First Century Naval Power” expounds on that thesis with two appendices –– “The China Coast Guard: A Uniformed Armed Service” by Ryan D. Martinson and “China’s Maritime Militia: An Important Force Multiplier” by Andrew S. Erickson and Conor M. Kennedy.
McDevitt explores the growth of PLAN’s surface navy, carrier development, and submarine deployment, as well as shipbuilding, replenishment, command and control, training and basing capabilities. He takes the reader from the western Pacific to the South China Sea and Indian Ocean; from the Philippines and India to Djibouti and Ethiopia, as the PRC finds ways to prevent what it perceives as containment –– and continue to control freedom, including in some cases freedom of naval operations in what are considered international waters.
Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen |
“At this writing, tension has increased across the Taiwan Strait for a number of reasons, primarily among them the fact that Beijing simply does not trust Taiwan’s ruling party, the Democratic People’s Party (DPP), which has long advocated eventual independence. Beijing especially does not trust the current president of Taiwan, Madam Tsai Ing-wen, who helped craft the independence language in the DPP Party Charter and who in January 2020 won a second term in a landslide. This vote has been interpreted, correctly in my view, as a massive rejection by the citizens of Taiwan of Beijing’s '1C2S' [one country, two systems] strategy. Nonetheless, preliminary indications suggest Xi is unlikely to back away from IC2S, implying Beijing believes that it has time on its side.”
Meanwhile, PRC continues to aggressively build and strengthen its navy.
Martial arts schools parade down a street in Taiwan. (2nd Lt. Dustin Brown) |
Shortly before his election Biden wrote about his support for Taiwan and commitment to freedom and democracy.
“We’re a Pacific power, and we’ll stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security, and values in the Asia-Pacific region,” President-elect Biden proclaimed in the Chinese-language newspaper World Journal.“That includes deepening our ties with Taiwan,” Biden noted.
The Voice of American reports, "But analysts expect fewer arms sales and nearby naval voyages and less anti-China language from a Biden administration.
In an announcement of key cabinet positions today, Nov. 24, Biden reinforced a pledge of support to allies and partners. He said, “That’s how we truly keep America safe, without engaging in needless military conflicts, and our adversaries in check, and terrorists at bay. And that’s how we counter terrorism and extremism, control this pandemic and future ones, deal with the climate crisis, nuclear proliferation, cyber threats in emerging technologies that spread authoritarianism.”
Biden’s incoming Secretary of State Blinken said this week he will approach his job with “equal measures of humility and confidence.”
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