In Post-Imperial World 'Navy Is Like Oxygen'

Review by Bill Doughty

War, anarchy and authoritarianism are children of crumbling empires. That's the gist of Robert D. Kaplan's retrospective collection, "The Return of Marco Polo's World: War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-First Century" (Random House, 2018). Kaplan sees the importance of a strong navy in a changing world.

Mahan

Noting that the U.S. Navy nearly half the size it was in mid-1980s, Kaplan warns, "A great navy is like oxygen: You notice it only when it is gone."

Decreases and delays in American warship production, coupled with increases in near-peer competitor shipbuilding, threaten U.S. Navy maritime influence.

As the Navy loses supremacy on the seas, according to Kaplan, similarly to what happened to the British Empire a century ago, other nations – including China and India –  are gaining influence and building more ships and ship-fighting technologies.

Kaplan reminds us of the influence of Navy Captain Alfred Thayer Mahan in 1890. Mahan, of course, called for the nation to become a great sea power, recognizing the oceans as the global "commons." Protecting sea lanes meant ensuring peace and prosperity. The Chinese are the Mahanians now," Kaplan contends. As Communist China expands its influence, Kaplan warns of the possibilities of conflict over freedom of maritime trade in Asia.

Such risk of conflict is a daily threat already in the Middle East, where the messy remnants of the Ottoman Empire and Arab Caliphate continue to flare in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, with the Kurds in the middle. Kaplan explains Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's "compulsive authoritarianism" and attempts to create "a mono-ethnic state" and a return to Ottoman-like imperialist tendencies. Again, the shadow of empire.

U.S. and Turkish military forces conduct a joint patrol in northeast Syria, Oct. 4, 2019.
(U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Andrew Goedl)

"The map of former Syria and Iraq will continue to resemble a child's messy finger-panting with Sunni and Shi'ite war bands expanding and contracting  their areas of control – the result being flimsy and radical micro-states," Kaplan observes.

Neither continued conflict nor abandonment of partners in the region will win a war on terror: "Remember that right now there are millions of Arab refugees from these wars stuck in the region whose children are not being educated, making the next generation even more prone to radical Islamist propaganda."

Kaplan's map of history is vast and three-dimensional. As always, he shows the importance of geography and culture. And he gives examples from empires as far back as the Mesopotamia, Chinese dynasties, Persian Empire, Arab Caliphate, Greece and Rome.

Kaplan

As for recent events and the post-imperial world, Kaplan contends the vacuum is being filled vitally by a "raft of supranational and multinational groupings such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, European Union, International Monetary Fund, International Court of Justice, World Economic Forum," and United Nations.

Kaplan writes about the need for balanced leadership that carefully manages realism with idealism in the new world order. He says the Navy is part of a national leadership in protecting allies and projecting power.

"History moves on. World War II and the Cold War recede. But the United States is the most well-endowed and advantageously located major state on Earth. That good fortune comes with responsibilities that extend beyond our borders. Just look at the size of our three-hundred-warship Navy and the location of our aircraft carriers on any given week. Realism is about utilizing such power to protect allies without precipitating conflict. It is not about abandoning them and precipitating conflict as a consequence."

After World War II, the United States led by example and has silently undergirded a peaceful world, Kaplan contends: "protecting the sea-lanes, the maritime choke points, and access to hydrocarbons, and in general providing some measure of security to the world."
"This is not traditional imperialism, which is no longer an option," he writes about such international cooperation undergirding peace and prosperity, "but it is the best available replacement for it." Indeed, if a great Navy is like oxygen, then the world's economy depends on the U.S. Navy to breathe.

The Independence-variant littoral combat ship USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS 10) transits the Philippine Sea during Exercise Pacific Griffin 2019, Oct. 1. Pacific Griffin is a biennial exercise conducted in the waters near Guam aimed at enhancing combined proficiency at sea while strengthening relationships between the U.S. and Republic of Singapore navies. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Josiah J. Kunkle)

This week, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday presented the keynote address at the 12th Regional Seapower Symposium in Venice, Italy, noting in echoes of Mahan, "... our global economy floats on seawater.”

“I’m committed to advancing our relationship and our shared values of democracy, free and fair trade, the rule of law,” CNO Gilday said. “Combined with a robust constellation of allies and partners who desire to build and strengthen the international economic order, we are operating towards the same end – continued security and stability that results in a free and open maritime commons.”

CNO Adm. Mike Gilday speaks at the Regional Seapower Symposium in Venice, Italy, Oct. 17, 2019. The symposium goals are to foster open and constructive exchange of views and ideas, enhance a comprehensive approach to many sea-related matters, and boost mutual knowledge and trust among naval partners. (U.S. Navy photo by Cmdr. Nathan Christensen)

The essays in Kaplan's collection, some written more than a decade ago, are still relevant and provocative, particularly 2006's "When North Korea Falls."

This is an engrossing and often prescient book, well worth a Navy read. Among the dozens of people Kaplan acknowledges and thanks are Navy Adm. (Ret.) James Stravidis, Marine Corps Lt. Col. David Mueller, Army Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, and Air Force Col. (Ret.) James H. Baker.

Army Gen. David Petraeus calls "Return" a work that "will be regarded as a classic. "These essays constitute a truly path-breaking, brilliant synthesis and analysis of geographic, political, technological, and economic trends with far-reaching consequences."