Bubbles of 'Factfulness' – Thinking Right

Review by Bill Doughty

In "Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things are Better Than You Think" (Flatiron Books, 2018) author Hans Rosling sets out to help the way we think and counter "fake news," "gaslighting," repetitious name-calling, media distortions and conspiracy theories.

Rosling shows ways to achieve critical thinking and reliance on facts over fear.

Perception may not equal reality, and reality can be distorted if seen only from one viewpoint. Rosling uses his Gapminder bubble charts to analyze data and understand our world and world trends.

"If you are interested in being right than in continuing to live in your bubble; if you are willing to change your worldview; if you are ready for critical thinking to replace instinctive reaction; and if you re feeling humble, curious and ready to be amazed – then please read on," Rosling writes early in "Factfulness."

With his unique tools, made famous in TED talks, Rosling reports remarkable progress in the world in these categories: infant mortality, immunizations, literacy and democracy, among many others. Overpopulation is coming under control as the world becomes more prosperous and parents have an average of two children that can be depended on to survive childhood.

An example of progress: reduction of nuclear warheads in the world from 64,000 in the mid 80s to around 15,000 in 2017. Plane crash deaths fell over the past century – from 2,100 per 10 billion passenger miles (1929-1933) to only one (2012-2016); global cooperation has led to 40 million non-crashing aircraft. Deaths from disasters are down from 971,000 a year in the 1930s to about 72,000 a year in this decade.

Prosperity is up, and war is way down over the past century. Rosling showed 200 years of progress in the world more than a decade ago:

Continued prosperity and security in the world is a goal of the Navy's biggest international maritime exercise, RIMPAC.



The about-to-be-completed Rim of the Pacific Exercise 2018 has been held biennially to build understanding, preserve peace and promote prosperity throughout the Pacific through cooperative naval partnerships. Most of RIMPAC is held in Hawaiian waters, and this year 25 nations participated. Navy ships assembled to form the multinational fleet for a photo exercise off the coast of Hawaii July 26. (Photos above and below by MC3 Dylan Kinee.)




"There are different uniforms, different faces, and different cultures, but we share a common purpose here at RIMPAC," said Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet Adm. John C. Aquilino. "Those countries are investing in the security and stability in this maritime region that has allowed all nations to enjoy unprecedented prosperity for decades."

Preserving peace, Rosling postulates, is key to a sustainable future.

"The general trend toward less violence is not just one more improvement. It is the most beautiful trend there is. The spread of peace over the last decades has enabled all the other improvements we have seen. We must take care of this fragile gift if we hope to achieve our other noble goals, such as collaboration toward a sustainable future. Without world peace, you can forget about all other global progress."

He distinguishes between unproductive fear (being frightened) and focused fear (about something truly dangerous).

"...'Frightening' and 'dangerous' are two different things. Something frightening poses a perceived risk. Something dangerous poses a real risk. Paying too much attention to what is frightening rather than what is dangerous – that is, paying too much attention to fear – creates a tragic drainage of energy in the wrong directions ... I would like my fear to be focused on the mega dangers of today and not the dangers from our evolutionary past."

Transit routes are expected to change, according to climate change scientists. (U.S. Navy)

"Five global risks we should worry about," Rosling says, are "risks of global pandemic, financial collapse, world war, climate change and extreme poverty."

He says Al Gore was wrong for wanting to fan the flames of fear of global warming, as if climate change is an immediate threat. "Climate change is too important for that," Rosling writes. "It needs systematic analysis, thought-through decisions, incremental action, and careful evaluation." In other words, not dire warnings of impending catastrophe. 

Once we understand the risks to the environment we can adjust our behavior. Change may appear slow but it's change nevertheless.

We've changed our collective behavior before. Aluminum cans used to have pull-tab flip tops. Plastic straws are going the way of smoking in the workplace. The Navy takes extraordinary steps to keep plastic out of the ocean. Communities are encouraging use of renewable shopping bags.

In 1986, 193 countries allowed lead in gasoline; in 2017, only three countries did so, according to Rosling. The use of ozone-depleting substances worldwide dropped tremendously in the past fifty years. PV solar modules that cost $66 in 1976, were 60 cents in 2016.

Some bubbles are frightening and dangerous, Rosling says. "In a globalized world, the consequences of financial bubbles are devastating. They can crash the economies of entire countries and put huge numbers of people out of work, creating disgruntled citizens looking for radical solutions."

"The simple and beautiful idea of the free market can lead to the simplistic idea that all problems have a single cause – government interference – which we must always oppose; and that the solution to all problems is to liberate market forces by reducing taxes and removing regulations, which we must always support. Alternatively, the simple and beautiful idea of equality can lead to the simplistic idea that all problems are caused by inequality, which we should always oppose; and that the solution to all problems is redistribution of resources, which we should always support. It saves a lot of time to think like this ... But it's not so useful if you like to understand the world."

Rosling's prescription: Be humble, be curious and be willing to put your instincts up against the data. Be open to being open and accepting of others – and reject evolutionary-based binary thinking. Understand that perspective can change our understanding or reality.

There is no positive value in "us and them" viewpoints, Rosling says, or "the mega misconception that the world is divided into two."

Rosling tells revealing and personal stories of his lifetime of public service as a physician in Africa and other continents. He reflects on visiting Vietnam in 1987. "The Vietnam War was the Syrian war of my generation," he writes.


During his visit to Hanoi, Rosling asked colleague Dr. Niem to show him the monument to the Vietnam War that killed 58,000 Americans and 1.5 million Vietnamese.

These monuments tell the story of Vietnam's constant battle to keep its northern neighbor, China. (from Stratfor.com)

He was shown three monuments: the first, a brass plate three feet high to commemorate the "Resistance War Against America"; the second, a marble stone, 12 feet high to commemorate independence from two centuries of French colonial rule; and the third, "a large pagoda, covered in gold. It seemed about 300 feet high," a monument to Vietnam's wars with China.

"The wars with China had lasted, on and off, for 2,000 years. The French occupation had lasted 200 years. The 'Resistance War Against America' took only 20 years. The sizes of the monuments put things in perfect proportion. It was only by comparing them that I could understand the relative insignificance of 'the Vietnam War' to the people who now live in Vietnam."

The new perspective and understanding of the tragedy of war in Southeast Asia 50 years ago is demonstrated in new relationship-building with former enemies. Vietnam is a first-time participant in RIMPAC 2018.

Germany, Italy and Japan, by the way – our mortal enemies 75 years ago – are reliable Allies and partners and RIMPAC participants today.

"My whole life I have done all I can to establish relations with people in other countries and cultures," Rosling writes. "It's not only fun but also necessary to strengthen the global safety net against the terrible human instinct for violent retaliation and the worst evil of all: war."

Bill Gates offers summer reading recommendations, including Factfulness.

Bill Gates recommends this book and calls it "One of the most important books I've ever read – an indispensable guide to thinking clearly about the world."  CNN's Fareed Zakariah had a fascinating discussion with Rosling in 2011. Using his bubble chart, Rosling showed how quickly China and other nations have progressed to join the United States in a "converging world," up in the high-end of a cooperative continuum.

A self-described "possiblist," Rosling said, "I say that it's possible if we keep peace, if we keep free trade and if we keep human rights we can all live up in there."

Does Rosling see the world only through rose-colored glasses?

It's hard to argue with the data presented in "Factfulness." But, what about trends in cyber warfare and social media, including election tampering, and what that means to democratic societies? How will carbon use be curbed by a rising standard of living, especially in India and China, where individuals understandably feel entitled to a better life? Will the obesity epidemic grow as nations grow, and how will that impact trends?

How will the rise of artificial intelligence – and singularity – affect global trends of stability and prosperity?

"Factfulness" may not have all the answers, but it has many fascinating insights about our world that can help burst bubbles of misunderstanding, fear and hate and make each of us a possiblist. Imagine.

(This book is written with Rosling's son, Ola Rosling and daughter in law, Anna Rosling Ronnlund. Hans Rosling died last year, yet his work continues at www.Gapminder.org.)